Updated Performance Against Seed Expectations

Some of you are probably familiar with the Performance Against Seed Expectations (PASE) metric used with the men's tournament brackets. In short, the metric takes into account how many games a seed is expected to win based on past performances since 1985 (the first year of the 64-team tournament). I use this metric to determine expected offensive statistical totals for the college basketball fantasy league that I run each March. Play-in games are not included.

Oddly, I couldn't find updated stats the past couple of years, so I continued to use ones I found in 2011. I recently remembered that I tallied wins by seed for 20 seasons back in 2006. I found the spreadsheet, added the last 10 years and computed a new PASE. Here it is:

1 - 3.34375
2 - 2.3984375
3 - 1.796875
4 - 1.5546875
5 - 1.1015625
6 - 1.125
7 - 0.890625
8 - 0.734375
9 - 0.5546875
10 - 0.6484375
11 - 0.5859375
12 - 0.5234375
13 - 0.2421875
14 - 0.1796875
15 - 0.0703125
16 - 0

Basically what this says is a 1 seed should win roughly 3.34 games each tournament. Since the 2011 season, the biggest winners have been 4 and 7 seends, both improving by +0.06. The biggest losers were 3 seeds (-0.07) and 5 seeds (-0.06).

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