Some of you are probably familiar with the Performance Against Seed Expectations (PASE) metric used with the men's tournament brackets. In short, the metric takes into account how many games a seed is expected to win based on past performances since 1985 (the first year of the 64-team tournament). I use this metric to determine expected offensive statistical totals for the college basketball fantasy league that I run each March. Play-in games are not included.
Oddly, I couldn't find updated stats the past couple of years, so I continued to use ones I found in 2011. I recently remembered that I tallied wins by seed for 20 seasons back in 2006. I found the spreadsheet, added the last 10 years and computed a new PASE. Here it is:
1 - 3.34375
2 - 2.3984375
3 - 1.796875
4 - 1.5546875
5 - 1.1015625
6 - 1.125
7 - 0.890625
8 - 0.734375
9 - 0.5546875
10 - 0.6484375
11 - 0.5859375
12 - 0.5234375
13 - 0.2421875
14 - 0.1796875
15 - 0.0703125
16 - 0
Basically what this says is a 1 seed should win roughly 3.34 games each tournament. Since the 2011 season, the biggest winners have been 4 and 7 seends, both improving by +0.06. The biggest losers were 3 seeds (-0.07) and 5 seeds (-0.06).
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